jaanko's blog

BID

Posted Sat, 03/07/2009 - 13:03 by jaanko

Malo sam se udubio natrag u FAD i NAD, ali opet sam na početku. Kužim što autor želi reći, ali očito su mi neke osnove promakle (ne znam, možda sam preskačući nekorisne knjige, preskočio i neku korisnu).

Nije mi jasan pojam PRODAJNI VOLUMEN. Sam tvrdiš da se u likvidnim uvjetima prodano odmah i kupi. Prema tome, možda bi bilo preciznije to zvati NEGATIVNI VOLUMEN?

Zatim mi nije jasan pojam PRODAJA PO BID CIJENI. Kužim da se to može reći za limit ordere, ali market ordere se obično prodaju između bid i ask. Oni onda ne upadaju u pojam BID CIJENE (ili ASK)?

The Five Signposts for a Market Bottom

Posted Sun, 10/12/2008 - 12:42 by jaanko

The Five Signposts for a Market Bottom

1. S&P 500 Index (SPX) holds above the 1000 level – The 1000
area on the S&P has double-barreled technical significance. First, it is
the site of the S&P’s 195-month moving average, a long-term
indicator that few investors follow. This moving average very often
represents the last “line of defense” from which a bottom can take
hold after a major decline. And second, 1000 is one of those “super
round numbers” that hold extra technical significance as potential
support and resistance levels.

Schaeffers Daily Bulletin 3 Months FREE

Posted Thu, 07/31/2008 - 15:49 by jaanko

Dobio sam na mail odličnu ponudu od SCH. Tri mjeseca besplatni dnevni bilten. Baš mi to treba za vježbu. Felix ih baš nije nahvalio pa da provjerimo. Ili Felix ne zna ili fakat ne valja kad su savjete počeli dijeliti besplatno?

Premarket 23.07.08

Posted Wed, 07/23/2008 - 10:40 by jaanko

Pošto sam u index putevima, malo sam našao vremena da napravim neku amatersku procjenu današnjih kretanja u marketu na osnovu vijesti i procjena raznih analitičara (u zagradi su njihove konsenzus procjene, kad se razlikuju od mojih).
Prema procjeni kretanja moram odlučiti oću li ostaviti puteve ili ću morat bježat s njima.

Earnings...
Bear: T (analitičari su bull), BA
Neutral: PFE (analitičari su bull)
Bull: PEP, MCD

SNDK

Posted Mon, 06/09/2008 - 14:02 by jaanko

Kruže neki rumorsi, moglo bi biti volatilno, možda uzeti neki julski strangle?

KEY

Posted Sun, 06/08/2008 - 15:03 by jaanko

Evo jedan rudarski trejd za nas koji nemamo vremena ni para za EURO (kao Felix :), pa nedjelju u iščekivanju utakmice provodimo kopajući nos u marketu :)

KeyCorp (Fin, SP500), 6.93B, 17.30 (52w 17.24-37.09), FA 3/5, P/C 4.4
Surprise % 21.4% -19.7% 300.0% 54.3%
% Held by Institutions: 59.60%

Volatility credit spread, sa malim dodatnim osiguranjem od velikog skoka.
Očekujem dalji pad dionice, barem prvo vrijeme. Razlozi: FAD i bear market.
Sumnje: Kratkoročni bull FAD, najave o mogućem merganju te upumpavanju kapitala.

**OZ, How Low Will It Go? -- KeyCorp (KEY)

WB

Posted Fri, 06/06/2008 - 14:15 by jaanko

22-Jul-08 Earnings announcement (nakon exp)
5-Jun-08 Price hit new 52-week low ($20.93)
-135% mart earn surprise; Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy): -41.70%

Are shorts the only smart investors? 5-Jun-08 09:41 pm xavc1980
In shorts' posts, I see plenty of useful information, such as leverage, the exposure to certain illiquid assets, the way fake profits have been generated, the rate paid to raise equity used to pay dividends, it's all very informative, and also educational.

Strike story - thinkBACK

Posted Tue, 05/27/2008 - 10:13 by jaanko

Pokušat ću malo rezimirati ovu priču oko OI i volumena, pa da vidimo jel sam shvatio uopće nešto ili sam totalni dibidus :)
Da probam proniknuti u tajne levela, očekivanja (sentiment), smjera i snage.

OI govori koliko je novih kontrakata (od otvaranja expiracijskog perioda) KREIRANO (BUY TO OPEN, long ili short). OI se smanjuje kad se kontrakti ZATVARAJU. Evo što o tome kaže OTB:
Closing out the position can be done by doing an offsetting transaction
(i.e. the existing buyer sells the option to close his long position while the

FLR

Posted Thu, 05/22/2008 - 12:09 by jaanko

FLR (Fluor Crp; IG; SP500), 188.85 (52w: 98.99-198.00); 16.73B
FA 4/5 (OM=3.65%); FAD bear; IV 38% (52w: 10-66); P/C: 0.86

17-Jul-08 Fluor splits before market open today (2:1 ratio)
19-May-08 Price hit new 52-week high ($198.00)
14-May-08 Fluor downgraded by Stanford Research

Podaci o kvartalnom goodwillu su mi malo čudni, a earnings surprise stalno ogroman.
Market sentiment = bear. Sector ne pratim, ali čini mi se lagano bullish.
Blogeri neaktivni, ali vijesti ima puno, što znači da bi volatilnost mogla porasti.

Strikes story:
OI za JUN: call185=1,141; put175=1,237.

PLAY 01.05.08

Posted Thu, 05/01/2008 - 15:15 by jaanko

Evo mojeg novog bloga sa profesionalnim savjetima za naivne početnike.
Moto trejdera-purana: Kad gubite, gubite muški :)

The CBOE Options Report with Doctor J: 04-24-08
MVL - entertainment, earn 5.5; 18-Apr-08 Price hit new 52-week high ($29.34), buylist: buys: 96%
FAD 3m bear, 20d bull = strat: prvo May bull strangle (pričekati bull dan), zatim ostati na puts

FRX - health, P/C 0.15, 23-Apr-08 Price hit new 52-week low ($33.32)
FAD bear (3m i 20d), buys: 64% - eventualni kandidat za bear play?

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